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Most recently completed reports and papers – not yet published

Inference about complex relationships using peak height data from DNA mixtures, by Peter J. Green and Julia Mortera (July 2020 revision). Associated R package and User guide: KinMix.

Casework applications of probabilistic genotyping methods for DNA mixtures that allow relationships between contributors, by Peter J. Green, Julia Mortera and Lourdes Prieto (2020).

Dawid A. P., Mortera J. (2019)  Probability Forecasts and Prediction Markets, Working paper 250 Dept. Economia, Università Roma Tre http://dipeco.uniroma3.it/default.asp?contenuto=working-papers

Mortera J.,  Dawid A. P., (2018) Bayesian networks in forensic science (ed. Banks D., Kafadar K., Kaye D.) Chapman & Hall/CRC Handbooks of Modern Statistical Applications series.

Dawid A. P., Mortera J. (2017) A Note on Prediction Markets, Working Paper n. 224, Università Roma Tre.

Recently published papers

Mortera J. (2020)   DNA Mixtures in Forensic Investigations: The Statistical State of the Art  Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application 7 (to appear)

Dotto F., Mortera J., Baldassarri L., Pascali V. (2020)  Analysis of a DNA mixture involving Romani reference populations. Forensic Science International: Genetics 44.   https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fsigen.2019.102168

Dawid A. P., Mortera J. (2019) Resolving some contradictions in the theory of linear opinion pools (comments on “Learning from others: conditioning versus averaging” by Richard Bradley) Theory and Decision (to appear). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11238-019-09729-0

Graversen T.,  Mortera J., Lago G. (2019) The Yara Gambirasio case: Combining evidence in a complex DNA mixture case Forensic Science International: Genetics, 40, 52–63 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fsigen.2018.12.010

Dawid A. P., Mortera J. (2019)  Graphical Models for Forensic Analysis
In Handbook of Graphical Models (ed. Drton M., Lauritzen S.L., Maathuis M., Wainwright M.) Chapman & Hall/CRC Handbooks of Modern Statistical Methods series.

Green P. J. and Mortera J. (2017) Paternity testing and other inference about relationships from DNA mixtures. Forensic Science International: Genetics 28, 128-137http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.fsigen.2017.02.001. On arXiv: http://arxiv.org/abs/1609.09638.

Mortera J. (2016) Statistical evaluation of forensic DNA mixtures from multiple traces. In Topics on Methodological and Applied Statistical Inference (edited by Di Battista, T. Moreno E. and Racugno W.), Springer International Publishing. https://doi: 0.1007/978-3-319-44093-4\_16.

Mortera J., Vecchiotti C., Zoppis S., Merigioli S. (2016) Paternity testing that involves a DNA mixture. Forensic Science International: Genetics, 23, 50–54, https://doi:10.1016/j.fsigen.2016.02.014.

Mortera, J. and Dawid, A. P (2015) Forensic identification then and now. Statistica Applicata-Italian Journal of Applied Statistics, 27 (2), 145–172.

R. G. Cowell, T. Graversen, S. Lauritzen, and J. Mortera (2015). Analysis of DNA mixtures with artefacts. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C. (with discussion), 64, 1 –48. Read before the Royal Statistical Society on 11 June 2014.

Sensitivity of inferences in forensic genetics to assumptions about founding genes, by Peter J. Green and Julia Mortera (2009), Annals of Applied Statistics, 3, 731-763. doi: 10.1214/09-AOAS235. On ArXiv: http://arxiv.org/abs/0908.2862. Supplementary information.

Other

Issue in memory of Stephen E. Fienberg (2017) Law, Probability and Risk, 16 (4), 1  149–150, https://doi.org/10.1093/lpr/mgx015

Statistics and probability for advocates: Understanding the use of statistical evidence in courts and tribunals Royal Statistical Society and The Inns Court College of Advocacy